India’s economy will return to growth in 2021-22 and expected to grow 9.2% as against a contraction of 7.3% in the previous fiscal, the first advance estimates by the National Statistical Office (NSO) released on Friday showed.

The estimated growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) is lower than Reserve Bank of India’s projection of 9.5% made in its monetary policy committee meeting last month.

Nominal GDP, which will be used as the base for FY22 revised estimates in the upcoming budget, is seen growing 17.6% as against the 14.4% growth used during the budget estimates for FY22.

Gross Value Added (GVA) is expected to rise by 8.6% compared to a contraction of 6.2% in FY21.

“However, these are early projections for 2021-22,” the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation said in a statement.

As per the ministry, the actual performance of various indicators, actual tax collections and expenditure incurred on subsidies in the following months, fresh relief measures for the vulnerable sections (such as providing free food grains which has now been extended till March 2022) and other measures, if any, taken by the government to contain the spread of Covid-19 would have a bearing on subsequent revisions of these estimates.

India’s GDP rose 20.1% in the first quarter of the fiscal year and 8.4% in the second quarter. Agriculture is estimated to grow 3.9% in FY22 compared to a growth of 3.6% in FY21 while manufacturing growth is estimated at 12.5% as against a contraction of 7.2% last fiscal.