In Samajwadi Party’s disastrous outing of winning just 47 seats in the 2017 elections in Uttar Pradesh, the biggest disappointment for Akhilesh Yadav was that the BJP won 23 out of the 29 seats in eight districts that are known as the ‘Yadav Belt’ in the state. The Agra-Lucknow Expressway built by Akhilesh in his term as Chief Minister connects these eight districts from Firozabad to Kannauj.

Visiting these districts, to ascertain the barometer of the election, reveals a spirited effort by the Samajwadi Party now to wrest back its bastion. “That was a wave election. Now the wave is over. We are all voting again for SP. Earlier, there was a misunderstanding in the family but now all is sorted and cordial,” says Malkhan Singh, playing a game of cards in Yadav family’s Saifai village in Etawah.

Akhilesh is himself contesting from the nearby Karhal seat while his uncle Shivpal Singh Yadav is contesting from Jaswantnagar after a family patch-up that is expected to revive the fortunes of the Samajwadi Party in the ‘Yadav Belt.’

But travel further down the Expressway till Kannauj and the story changes. This region is also the ‘potato belt’ of UP.

Mangal Singh here is hard at work packing his potato crop and is all praise for the BJP and CM Yogi Adityanath. “I get around Rs 450 per quintal for my crop… we do make some profit. But the bigger issue is of our security and national interest so people are inclined towards the BJP. This area was earlier an SP stronghold but no more,” he says.

Anita in another field is also harvesting potato crop and says she will vote for Narendra Modi. “We will vote for the person who sent us rations and keeps us safe,” she says.

In the Yadav belt, where one often sees young boys on motorcycles wearing red caps, the often repeated statement from locals is: “Ab Ladai Suraksha Aur Samman Ke Beech Hai (The fight is between security and pride)’ as some cite rampant lawlessness under SP regime while some say the Yadavs have been defamed and humiliated under a ‘Thakurvaad Sarkar’ run by Yogi Adityanath.

Campaigning in Kannauj on Tuesday, CM Yogi Adityanath announced the state will soon start to procure the potato crop on MSP — a move that BJP hopes will rally the farmers in its favour.

70 Seats and 14 Districts

News18.com travelled through 14 districts in the state over the last 10 days that cover around 70 seats — 59 of which will be polling in Phase 3 on February 20, Sunday. This includes the ‘Yadav Belt’, the urban and rural seats of Kanpur, Unnao and the sensitive district of Lakhimpur where farmers were run over by the convoy of a BJP minister’s son.

In the 59 seats going to polls in Phase 3, BJP won 49 in 2017 while SP had to stay content with just eight seats. One seat apiece went to BSP and Congress.

The contrasting picture which emerges is SP working hard to move back into a position of strength in this area to build on from what it terms “the good momentum of the first two phases” and the BJP which is determined not to give up its gains of 2017 and 2019 by showcasing ‘good law and order’.

“The voter is now aware and recognizes who is what. The caste barriers are breaking down. Even some Yadavs are moving towards the BJP,” a youngster, Nitin Kumar, told News18.com in Kannauj, claiming that BJP’s candidate and former IPS officer Asim Arun will win the seat in his debut election.

Arun’s case, in fact, could show that candidate selection may be the key to success for either the BJP or the SP in many seats. Like in the Sirasgunj seat in Firozabad, the only seat that the Samajwadi Party won in the Firozabad district in 2017 elections, its candidate Hariom Yadav, a family relative, is now the BJP’s candidate from the seat.

As the polling date for the third phase of UP Assembly elections inches closer, News18.com also found that voters are not tight-lipped anymore and are vocal about their own local issues. While some are satisfied with free ration and Kisan Samman Nidhi schemes, there are many who are fed up with the issue of stray animals destroying their fields. “Look at the stray cattle here. Farmers have to guard their fields all night,” says Sobharam Yadav in Etah district.

One doesn’t get to listen about issues like nationalism in the rural belt unlike the urban areas but government schemes during Covid-19 for the villagers seem to resonate well.

Some X-factors like the farmers issue in Lakhimpur, with Ashish Mishra, the son of a Union Minister, getting bail in the contentious case, may impact the dynamics here though BJP remains in a pole position. In Unnao, crimes against women have dominated headlines, but are absent from the political rhetoric during elections.

In Kanpur, a keen fight between BJP and SP is seen on many seats though the former has brought in all its big guns to campaign to tide over any unrest.

A Look at the Districts

In Unnao, where five out six seats went to the BJP, many voters expressed their happiness over government schemes, and many others highlighted the issues. The issue of Kuldeep Singh Sengar seems to have mellowed down with time among locals, and the fight on seats like Pura, Sadar and Mohan have become interesting on local issues.

“Is baar kaante ki takkar Hai, bas itna hi keh sakte hai,” said a Dhaba owner on the outskirts of Unnao, refusing to elaborate.

The BJP had won five out of six seats in Unnao during 2017 assembly polls, one seat went to the kitty of the BSP. However, later on, the BSP MLA had switched over to the BJP.

In Kannauj, the district also known as the perfume capital of India, an interesting contest has come up with Retd IPS Asim Arun being fielded by BJP against SP’s Anil Dohre. Though the buzzword on this seat was outsider versus insider, two out of three seats here — Kannauj Sadar, Chibbramau and Tirwa — were in the grip of the BJP. Only Kannauj Sadar seat was won by SP in 2017 Assembly polls. However, locals feel ‘perfume politics’ should be kept away from Kannauj.

Speaking to News18.com, one of the perfume manufacturers said, “Kannauj is known for its perfume and fragrance, this is our identity and it should not be dragged into politics. This brings a bad name not just to the business but also to our business.”

Kannauj was recently in headlines when the GST department raided the premises of one of the perfume business owners after which a big amount of cash and valuables were recovered from the owner’s possession.

In Lakhimpur Kheri, where eight people were killed in the October incident, there were apprehensions of a big dent to the ruling BJP which had bagged all eight seats here in 2017 elections. Locals claim that there is a close contest on four out of eight seats — Dhauraha, Mohammadi, Sadar and Srinagar. However, there are many who claim that the Tikunia incident may not have as much an impact on polls as speculated.

In the Etawah district in Yadav belt, the Samajwadi Party seems to be gearing up to wrest back its bastion, but as per senior SP leaders, ticket distribution might be a concern on some of the seats. The Etawah district houses three Assembly seats of Etawah Sadar, Jaswantnagar and Bhartana (reserved), out of which, only Jaswantnagar was with Shivpal Yadav while the rest two were won by the BJP in 2017.

Shivpal Yadav is said to be unhappy over settling for just one seat in the alliance but has campaigned for Akhilesh Yadav in Karhal seat. The Samajwadi Party will be looking to win back all the three seats of Etawah as the district has been known as the hometown of SP patriarch and former CM Mulayam Singh Yadav and his family.

It is also expecting gains in Etah and Kasganj as well as Auriya and Faruqabad where it once ruled the roost. The BJP is equally determined not to cede any political space here. The BSP is hardly a factor.

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