NEW DELHI: The Indian outreach to Myanmar this week was overdue, walking a fine balance between engaging the immediate eastern neighbour while pushing it towards restoration of democracy. Maintaining a now established “twin-track” approach, India’s approach is closest to that of Japan but intrinsically different from China.
Foreign secretary Harsh Shringla’s visit, according to the government’s own review, checked four key areas of India’s engagement with Myanmar — security, humanitarian issues, politics/democracy and geopolitics. The view here is that India does not have the luxury of isolating Myanmar in the way the western world has done, for its security and geopolitical interests are too important.
On the democracy front, India feels it is the only power in the region that can push Myanmar towards a more federal structure based on its Constitution. In their conversations, the Indian side emphasised the importance of going back to elections.
The military leadership informed Shringla that while they had announced 2023 as the year for elections, they were considering introducing proportional representation along with direct elections. India has restarted discussions on bringing a more politically acceptable system back in Myanmar, which first started in 2011.
Shringla, sources said, pushed for the release of political prisoners, but no one in New Delhi is holding their breath on this. Shringla’s meeting with the opposition NLD, therefore, became important, because it signalled India considers the premier opposition party to be an important stakeholder. He wasn’t allowed to meet Aung San Suu Kyi, but it wasn’t a surprise. In recent weeks, the Myanmar junta refused permission for the same to the Chinese and Japanese special envoys as well as the Asean and UNSG envoys.
However, engagement with the military leadership has started across the board. Thailand has maintained steady but quiet ties, particularly in the current situation when Myanmar situation is driving refugees into Thailand like India. Former US governor Bill Richardson maintains links too, though these are billed private initiatives.
China’s special envoy has had two long visits to Myanmar. China has resumed work on the Kyaukhphu port in Rakhine, not to speak of helping with security equipment. With the west isolating Myanmar, their foreign policy options too are restricted. It is for this reason that India has maintained contact to keep some more options open. Now that Russia is also taking a close interest in Myanmar, their options have somewhat increased.
India has had close contact with the Myanmar military, stretching back to 1999. It’s often forgotten that it was the military leadership in Myanmar that diversified away from the Chinese just over a decade ago, to open up to the world, elections and a decade of democracy, as well as balance out China.
New Delhi has long believed Myanmar doesn’t respond well to public censure or sanctions. India’s persuasion will all be through quiet conversations. In 2020, Shringla and the Army chief jointly travelled to Myanmar when they met Suu Kyi and Min Aung Hlaing together. India has started work on all the development and aid projects decided upon then.
During Shringla’s visit, India announced it would continue with its development projects in the Rakhine state, border regions of Chin, Sagaing and the Naga self-administered zones, where sources said, India has already completed over 100 projects.
Security issues were a big part of the conversation, which included, the influx of Bangladeshis in Mizoram and Manipur.
Sources said this was one of the reasons for persistent Covid infections in Mizoram. Shringla donated 1 million vaccines to Myanmar and much of those will be used to vaccinate the border populations. The security conversation with the Myanmar junta is seen to be very important. The civil war-like conditions inside Myanmar is a security nightmare for India as the fighting spills over the borders. There are reports of illegal arms smuggling which opens the way for China and Pakistan to supply weapons to India’s own insurgent groups in that region.