NEW DELHI: Cricket, it is often said, is a game of glorious uncertainties. So is politics, even though the uncertainties may not be glorious.
The Punjab politics, courtesy cricketer-turned-politician Navjot Singh Sidhu, has become fast-changing and as uncertain as a T20 cricket match.
With Navjot Singh Sidhu tendering resignation as Congress chief and ex-CM Amarinder Singh exploring options including a possible “saffron switch-hit”, the state is witnessing a new political drama each passing day.
While the focus is on Amarinder-Sidhu fight, chief minister Channi could end up emerging as the surprise dark horse in Punjab politics.
The possibility of a multi-cornered contest across the state for the first time, makes this contest more uncertain.
A look at how the various parties and formations appear to be shaping up:
Congress:
The ruling party which swept the state in 2017 is a leading contender five years later as well. However, much has changed and is changing for it.
The party has lost Amarinder Singh, who not only brought it to power but also had the ability to carry along all sections of the state’s population. State party chief Navjot Singh Sidhu launched a campaign against Amarinder leading to his ouster.
However, if Congress was hoping for harmony in the house, things don’t seem to be headed that way.
As things stand today, more than the opposition, the Congress is its own most bitter critic.
As a positive, the Congress can take credit for giving the state its first dalit chief minister in Charanjit Singh Channi.
But even before Channi could settle down with his ministry, Sidhu tendered resignation as party chief, plunging the party into a new crisis.
Adding to the drama, minister Razia Sultana and two other office bearers also quit their posts in support of Sidhu.
Chief minister Channi, who many thought might be a stopgap arrangement for the Congress, has hit the ground running and seems to have surprised everyone.
The fact that dalits constitute a sizable population in the state, if Channi plays his cards well, he has the potential to upset the plans of not just Congress hopefuls but also several opposition parties.
AAP:
The infighting in the Congress seems to be good news for the principal opposition party in the state, the Aam Aadmi Party.
The assembly elections in Punjab were traditionally a two-horse race between the Congress and the Akalis. It was in 2017, that Punjab saw a triangular contest with the entry of the Aam Aadmi Party.
The party seems to have made inroads in the rural areas of the state where there is much support to the agitation against the farm laws.
However, the AAP has its own leadership issues.
Bhagwant Mann has been the party’s face in Punjab for a long period.
However, it is not clear whether the elections would be contested under him.
AAP also can’t boast of a traditional cadre aross the state like the Congress and Akalis.
The party has to be very careful when it comes to ticket-distribution if it really has to wrest power in the border state.
SAD-BSP:
Unlike all other parties, the Shiromani Akali Dal has an advantage. It is not facing any leadership tussle. As far as the party affairs are concerned, the Badal family is firmly in control.
However, that may not be enough for it to ride back to power. The party has lost considerable support that it once enjoyed especially in the rural areas.
It has also lost the BJP as an ally. The BJP’s support had been crucial to the SAD in helping wrest urban voters who would have otherwise flocked to the Congress.
To make up for the lost ally support, the Akali Dal has allied with the Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party.
But if the Congress uses Channi effectively, the AAP and the BSP may have to rework their plans for the polls.
BJP:
The BJP in Punjab has always been in the shadows of the SAD, which was always the senior partner in the alliance.
Now with SAD and BJP having parted ways, the ruling party at the Centre finds itself with a weak state unit in Punjab.
The farmer agitation has also led to an atmosphere where the party doesn’t find much support presently especially in the rural belt.
However, there has been some buzz about the possibility of Amarinder Singh coming closer to the party. That would certainly strengthen the BJP in the state.
Amarinder Singh:
The Patiala royal has been removed by the Congress as its chief minister. But he could still be holding some aces.
Amarinder Singh has made it clear that for him all political options are open.
The former chief minister not only has a network across the state but also strong support in the Patiala region which has been his bastion.
The fact that many dissidents in the faction-ridden Congress could look towards him makes him a potent force.
Other players and farmers:
Another key factor in the upcoming Punjab elections would be the trajectory the farmers protest takes. The largest support to the agitation against the Centre’s farm bills has come from the state.
The farmers have been opposing the BJP but not veered towards any particular party.
What shape the agitation takes place will surely have a bearing on the Punjab elections.
There is a possibility of smaller groups with regional appeal also taking the electoral plunge.