NEW DELHI: As seven Rajya Sabha seats from Punjab are up for grabs by July this year, AAP is well-poised to get six from the state after receiving a massive mandate in the just concluded assembly polls. This would make it the joint fifth largest party along with BJD with a total of nine seats each in the Upper House after the top four — BJP, Congress, TMC and DMK.
Backed by its landslide victory in Punjab where it won 92 of the 117 assembly seats, the party will get four seats in the upcoming biennial elections on March 31 and two others in July. As three Rajya Sabha seats from Delhi have already been in its kitty, AAP will now be a force to reckon with in the opposition benches whenever a crucial bill comes up for voting.

The results of Punjab and UP polls also signal the end of the road for SAD on one hand as the party will lose all its Rajya Sabha members this year while BSP’s tally will be reduced from three to one. Congress, on the other hand, will see its tally reduced from 34 to 26 by July — barely managing to retain its leader of opposition status in the House. The government will, meanwhile, have to nominate as many as seven members to Rajya Sabha next month. Currently, nine of the 12 nominated members are part of BJP’s total tally of 97 in the Upper House.
Asked whether the nominated members can vote in the Presidential elections after joining any political party, former Lok Sabha Secretary General PDT Achary told TOI that such MPs cannot vote. “If nominated members join a political party, they will have to follow their party’s whip in other matters in the House including voting on bill. But party whip doesn’t apply in the Presidential polls. Such members cannot vote in the Presidential elections,” he said.
Analysis of the current strength and projected tallies shows that the ruling NDA will still be marginally short of the majority mark and it will, therefore, continue to depend on one or more non-UPA and non-NDA friendly parties such as BJD, AIADMK and YSRCP to get crucial bills passed in the Upper House.
Though BJP-led alliance may more or less retain its strength in the wake of elections to 68 seats this year, NDA will have to wait for the next big cycle of biennial elections till April 2024 to get to the majority mark on its own provided other factors (alliance partners and win in assemblies’ polls) remain constant. Rajya Sabha will see only nine vacancies next year and therefore reaching a majority mark in the Upper House will not be possible in 2023. The election for 54 seats from different states, including UP, will be held in March-April, 2024.