Manipur, the “land of gems”, is full of variety and differences. As one lands in the tiny north-eastern state, the clear geographical distinction between the valley and the hills is visible from the aeroplane window. This difference exists in the political arena as well.

There are 60 assembly seats in Manipur, and in 2017, the Congress got 28 and the Bharatiya Janata Party 21. Despite that, the BJP managed to strike up alliances, got support from the National People’s Party (NPP) and Naga People’s Front (NPF), and formed the government under chief minister N Biren Singh, a former journalist and footballer who undoubtedly knows how to play a good political match.

The hills have 90 per cent of the area of the state with 40 per cent of the voters, while the valley has 10 per cent of the area but around 60 per cent of the voters. Of the 60 seats, 40 are in the valley and 20 in the hills.

On reaching Imphal, we boarded a car and asked the driver what the local mood was like. The elderly man, Budham Singh, said, “It’s BJP because now they are only there. Everyone moving from Congress to BJP. The most important factor is there’s no bandh, no economic blockade like before. One problem is there in the BJP here, two to three people apart from Biren want to be the CM. But in the hills, they might not get what they are looking for.”

The ruling BJP has raised the issues of peace, development and bandh-free governance. The “double-engine government” strategy is also being marketed here. A lot of Congress leaders have switched sides in recent times, and so the party is only emphasising on “change”, without explaining further.

Travelling in the hills as well as the valley separately is essential to understand the pulse of the people.

There are 40 seats in the valley in which the BJP did well in 2017 too, but in the hills, the Congress got 9 seats, BJP 5, NPF 4 and NPP 2.

Tribal mosaic of Manipur

53 per cent of the population is Meitei, followed by 24 per cent Naga and 16 per cent Kuki. Hindus and Meiteis are there in the valley and in the hills largely Kukis, Nagas with Christian domination.

News 18 travelled in both the valley and the hills. The mood in the BJP camp is upbeat. Party’s state general secretary Premananda said, “Oh It’s hanna hanna (again and again) BJP. We have brought peace to the state. We have done development. We will win.”

In the valley, there are Hindus, non-tribal Meitei communities, while the hills are inhabited largely by the Christian Nagas and Kuki-Zomi communities.

The hill districts combine Churachandpur, Chandel, Senapati, Tamenglong, Ukhrul, Kamjong, Noney, Kangpokpi and Pherzawl.

The valley

Mainly Imphal East, Imphal West, Thoubal, Bishnupur and three more districts make up the valley. The Thoubal constituency, which is not far from Imphal city, is former chief minister Okram Ibobi Singh‘s seat and there the public mood seems to be on his side.

In the valley, the BJP and Congress gave each other a close fight in 2017. To capture the local mood, News18 ventured into the Ima Market.

Ima Market is Asia’s largest women-run market, located in the heart of Manipur’s capital, though women’s representation on candidate lists of all political parties in the state is extremely low. But the Imas (mother-ladies) too are nowadays busy discussing politics. And the men also join them.

Girija Thang, a female shopkeeper, said, “This time I think there’s a saffron wind. Here, people always vote for the party that is in power at the Centre. The BJP has brought in peace, but development is only spoken about, we don’t see anything.”

The men sitting there said that with the BJP in power, blockades, bandhs are not happening. “So we will go with the BJP.”

Local tea seller Bhim Singh said, “Unemployment and underdevelopment are issues, but life and livelihood are more important. We have got that.”

It was clear that the vote this time will be more on peace than development. The fact that the people can earn their living without frequent bandhs is important to them.

As one reaches the Congress office on BT Road, it’s filled with local leaders but the mood is not exactly upbeat. One of them said to News18, “People want change. BJP has done nothing, no employment. We will win.”

What the Congress is offering to the people, however, is not clear.

Political analysts point out that more than a dozen leaders left the Congress after 2017. “On what grounds the Congress is seeking support, what is its election issue, it’s still not clear,” they said. “The Congress has its traditional voters and it is banking on them.”

Most key candidates including chief minister from BJP N Biren Singh, former Congress chief minister Okram Ibobi Singh and former deputy CM from the National People’s Party (NPP) Yumnam Joykumar Singh are all contesting from the valley.

In Imphal city, hoardings of some other parties too are visible this time. Apart from the Congress, BJP and NPP, Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar’s posters can be seen in various parts of the city. Former cop Thounaojam Brinda is contesting from his party Janata Dal (United). She said, “One has to take a stand to save Manipur. I am doing that and the JD(U) has good chance.”

The party from Bihar may open its account here.

Though NPP flags too are visible, people are not openly discussing them.

So the BJP seems to have an edge in the valley but silent voters may leave their mark on this election.

The hills

As News18 headed to Samulamlan village in the Saikot constituency, there were people sitting in a small bazaar. Local resident Akhon Menglei said, “All development is there in the valley. We have never got development. We don’t have multispeciality hospitals and schools.”

There is an autonomous district council but hill people want more power to ensure development takes place, said a teacher. “Only a small percentage of the budget is for the hills. Why this bias? This time we will also respond.”

The sense of being left out is palpable but it has been around for decades, analysts say. “All the governments have given more emphasis to the valley. Biren Singh has tried to start a programme called ‘go to hills’. This is not new,” they said.

As one travels to Churachandpur, Moirang, areas around Loktak, there is a sense of discontent. The NPP, being seen as the dark horse in these polls, seems to be more visible here. A shopkeeper in Moirang said, “We have tried the Congress and BJP, let’s see the NPP or NPF now. They will think of our identity and our issues.”

Churachandpur saw a deadly ambush on November 13 as an Assam Rifles commanding officer, his wife and son along with four other soldiers were killed after some armed men attacked their convoy with IED at Sekhan village of Singhat division.

People here are scared that this sign of insurgency will hurt the demand of repealing the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA), a key issue of the elections.

One teacher in Churachandpur district told News18, “We want to come out of the identity of insurgency. That is important to us.”

The BJP is confident it will come back to power with more than 40 of the total 60 assembly seats. The Congress says there will be change. The NPP claims it will be the ‘king’ this time and not the ‘kingmaker’.

The Manipur verdict is not only about who gets more numbers but also what alliance takes place after that.

According to the people’s mood, whoever wins has to focus more on hill development, pick up the pace in the valley, ensure peace and stability, and push for the removal of AFSPA.

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