More than three million people have fled Ukraine as Russia takes complete administrative control of the Kherson region and continues to bomb the Ukrainian capital Kyiv, besides other cities such as Kharkiv, Mariupol, Sumy and Chernihiv.

That estimation of three million refugees from the United Nations (UN) has not been disputed. But conflicting claims have been pouring in as to the death of soldiers, from both sides, and civilians since the February 24 invasion ordered by Russia’s President Vladimir Putin to “stop genocides” in Ukraine by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s regime. Sample these:

• 7,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in Ukraine, 14,000 injured, according to latest estimates by US officials quoted by The New York Times. This is higher than the number of American troops killed over 20 years of war in Iraq and Afghanistan.
• 498 Russian soldiers were dead and 1,597 wounded, Russia said on March 2. This is the last such communication from Russia.
• 2,870 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed, 3,700 injured and 572 captured, Russia had also said in its March 2 statement. On the other hand, Ukraine, backed externally by the US-dominated military alliance Nato (North Atlantic Treaty Organization), said only 1,300 of its soldiers had been killed by March 12.
• 979 Ukrainian soldiers were killed and 1,134 wounded in the Donbass region alone by March 11, according to the Donetsk People’s Republic, a self-proclaimed, Russia-backed breakaway state in Ukraine.
• Between 2,000 and 4,000 Ukrainian troops are dead, according to a US official, in the war that Putin declared to force Ukraine into showing neutrality with regard to his tussle with Nato that has expanded in eastern Europe by making many erstwhile Soviet constituents its members.
• 13,800 Russian troops have been killed and 600 captured, Ukraine said on March 16, in the conflict that has seen the West pour funds, besides military and humanitarian aid, for Zelenskyy to take on Russia’s clearly superior military but avoid a direct confrontation, primarily because Ukraine is not a Nato member.
• 700 civilians have been killed, according to the UN, which has said actual figures are believed to be considerably higher but not available as intense hostilities hamper reporting and verification. Ukraine said the figure is 3,000 in Mariupol and Kharkiv alone.

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We can assume Ukrainian casualties will be higher because of Russia’s mightier military, which is, however, said to be nearing exhaustion of ammunition to continue the Ukraine war. We can understand why the US, Russia and Ukraine are claiming what they’re claiming. But we don’t have a clear sense of the death toll as it often happens in an active war zone.

TRACKING CIVILIAN DEATHS

Even civilian casualty numbers by the UN are said to be vastly underestimated. One explanation being offered is that this is because of the ground situation. Intense fighting in several areas has disrupted reporting and verification.

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UN staffers are forced to frequently relocate due to the worsening security situation, unable to interview victims and witnesses. That’s why the UN has said the actual civilian casualty numbers are likely to be much higher.

Meanwhile, Nato is getting more active in helping Ukraine and ramping up its military presence in the region, should Russia go beyond Ukraine. Convoys of arms and ammunition from the West have been entering Poland and other Nato countries in Russia’s vicinity. The situation would only get worse if Putin carried out his threat of tactical nuclear strikes in retaliation.

CORROBORATING DEATHS IN FORCES

Corroborating the death of soldiers is more difficult because these casualties are prone to misinformation. In war, governments typically downplay their losses to boost the morale of their country and allies. Accordingly, they exaggerate enemy losses.

Russia’s media regulator has blocked access to at least 32 websites, escalating its clampdown on the media after the beginning of the war.

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In the current conflict, experts say, Ukraine has tried to inflate Russian casualties so that domestic pressure increases for Putin to stop the war. Russia has also used the numbers in a way that seeks to ensure protests by its own people against the war do not spiral out of hand.

A barrage of economic sanctions imposed on Russia by America, Japan and European countries are taking effect and will disrupt the Russian economy and people’s lives further.

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There is another reason why death figures lack clarity. For example, Russian military officers sent conscripts besides regular soldiers to Putin’s special military operations in Ukraine. This created a stir in Russia after videos and photographs showing these conscripts emerged from Ukraine.

PUTIN ORDERS PROBE

Ukraine has uploaded, on the Internet, multiple videos of captured Russian soldiers, many of them conscripts aged 18-20, promoting Russian mothers to scan social media to find out about their sons. Rights groups have also been flooded with calls from anxious family members of soldiers seeking information.

This forced Putin to order his Military Prosecutor’s Office to probe how conscripts had reached Ukraine, and punish officials who left their presence in a war zone. “Conscripted soldiers are not participating and will not participate in the fighting. There will not be an additional conscription of reservists either,” Putin said in a televised address marking International Women’s Day on March 8.

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