The phrase “once bitten, twice shy” perhaps aptly sums up the reaction of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) to the 2022 Punjab exit poll verdict in its favour. As the numbers started trickling in on Monday, senior party leaders were adopting a cautious approach, considering what happened in 2017.

Five years ago, some of these surveys had predicted that the party would form the government in Punjab. But contrary to the exit polls, AAP fell well short, reaching 20 seats in the final results. Some pollsters even showed the party in a direct contest with the Congress. However, the clear majority for the Congress with 77 of the total 117 seats had taken everyone by surprise.

The HuffPost-CVoter survey for the 2017 Punjab polls predicted 11 of the 117 seats going to the BJP-SAD alliance, 43 to the Congress, and a clear victory for AAP with 63 seats. The Aaj Tak-Axis exit polls gave 18-22 seats to BJP+SAD, 56-61 to the Congress, and 36-41 to AAP. ABP News-CSDS foresaw 28-36 seats going to the BJP-SAD alliance, 47-55 to the Congress, and 26-34 to AAP. TV 24 News gave 20-25 seats to BJP+SAD, 27-35 to the Congress, and a massive victory to AAP with 70-80 seats. VDP Associates predicted 7 seats going to BJP+SAD, 44 to the Congress, and 62 to AAP. The Week-Hansa Research poll forecast 28-30 seats for BJP+SAD, 49-51 for the Congress, and 33-35 for AAP. India Today-Axis gave 18-22 seats to the BJP-SAD alliance, 56-62 to the Congress, and 36-41 to AAP.