The elections for two Rajya Sabha seats from Assam to be held on Thursday seem headed for a thrilling conclusion.

While the Bharatiya Janata Party, which is in power at the Centre as well as in the state, has enough MLAs to win one of the seats, chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has expressed confidence of winning both. This has left the opposition Congress uneasy.

The BJP has fielded Pabitra Gogoi Margherita from one of the seats while its ally United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL) has put up Rwngwra Narzary from the other.

“The Congress does not know that many of its MLAs are going to join the BJP. Also, candidates are not bound to follow the whip issued by the party in Rajya Sabha polls. By this calculation, we will manage to get both the seats,” Biswa Sarma said recently.

The Congress’s sole candidate is former MP Ripun Bora. “The Congress has the numbers and I am confident that we will win,” he said.

Each winning candidate would need at least 43 votes.

In the 126-member Assam assembly, the BJP has 63 MLAs, while allies Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and UPPL have nine and seven, respectively. The Bodoland People’s Front (BPF), which has also started supporting the BJP, has 3 legislators.

So, in total, the BJP potentially has at least 82 votes on its side.

The Congress has 27 MLAs. It is also counting on the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) with 15 legislators, and Raijor Dal and Communist Party of India (Marxist) with one each. If all these MLAs back the Congress, it would have 44 votes.

So, while the Congress seemingly has sufficient votes to win one Rajya Sabha seat, the BJP’s confidence has given it a reason to be cautious.

Following Himanta Biswa Sarma’s remarks, Congress’s Assam incharge Jitendra Singh has reached Guwahati and is holding meetings with party MLAs.

The Congress has also issued a three-line whip to its legislators for election day, hoping that there would be no cross-voting in favour of the BJP.

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