“I do not understand arithmetic. I understand one thing, I want to see the country progress. In seven years, we have proved that the country’s schools could have been made better, poverty could have been eliminated, hospitals could have improved, electricity could have been supplied for 24 hours and the country could have had good roads. In 70 years, knowingly, they have kept us backward. Either these parties will improve the situation, leaving no need for us, or people will continue to vote for us.”

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This was Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) national convener and Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal’s response after winding up the campaign for Goa and Uttarakhand and just before beginning the final phase of campaign in Punjab, when asked whether he sees himself competing with other leaders in the opposition alliance against the NDA in 2024.

Kejriwal’s response was a hark back to his old self, when he first burst upon the Indian political scene in 2013, securing 28 of the 70 seats in AAP’s maiden elections and defeating then three-time Congress chief minister Sheila Dixit.

Since then, even though there have been setbacks, like his defeat in Varanasi at the hands of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Kejriwal has kept the fire of national ambitions burning. With this emphatic victory in Punjab, a mid-sized border state, the AAP has finally shaken off its tag as a “Delhi-centric” party and succeeded in forming the government in two states. It has achieved what no other regional party founded way ahead of the AAP – Bahujan Samaj Party, Samajwadi Party, Biju Janata Dal, Trinamool Congress, Shiv Sena, Nationalist Congress Party, DMK, AIADMK , Janata Dal (secular) , Janata Dal (United), LJP – has been able to achieve so far. Currently, it is the only party, apart from the Congress, BJP and Left with majority governments in two states – Delhi and Punjab. This win is bound to alter the faultlines in the Indian political landscape.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y3xd4xKHpZA

THE CAMPAIGN

The election campaign in the three states of Punjab, Goa and Uttarakhand was spearheaded by Arvind Kejriwal and adhered to the same style sheet. The AAP chief kept a hawk’s eye on each aspect of the campaign, from messaging on hoardings and banners to pamphlets, from town halls to door-to-door, from selection of candidates to identifying the chief ministerial faces, from appointing AAP Delhi MLAs Jarnail Singh and Raghav Chadha as Punjab co in-charge way back in 2020 to conducting extensive qualitative and quantitative research repeatedly through the course of the campaign and calibrating the response of the party through all the highs and lows. In the end, the AAP’s campaign was simple and direct, it stuck to its course and the rollout was smooth. The only real jitters for the party came in the days following the Congress’s announcement of Charanjeet Singh Channi as its chief ministerial candidate, which sparked a tussle between Kejriwal and Channi on who is the real ‘aam aadmi’. The AAP learnt from its mistake in 2017 and named a chief ministerial candidate in the hugely popular political satirist Bhagwant Mann and went all out to win the support of the Hindus, who had stayed away from the AAP in 2017, with Tiranga Yatras and Kejriwal pointedly assuring them, particularly in the last days of the campaign.

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The calling card, of course, was the ‘Delhi model’ of development, the trust and believability of the voter in Punjab in that model, following the AAP’s work on health, education, electricity, free busrides in Delhi, slogan ‘One chance for Kejriwal, for AAP’, staggered release of the manifesto targeting various sections , specially youth, women and traders, road shows, rallies, door-to-door, closed door meetings with influential sections and townhalls in the wake of rallies being banned due to the Covid-19 pandemic and big-ticket interviews that were broadcast live.

In Punjab, while Mann focused on Malwa, where he is hugely popular, Kejriwal took up the challenge of galvanising support in Majha and Doaba. In the 2017 elections, while AAP had drawn a blank, failing to win even a single of the 25 seats in Majha and Doaba, it had won just two seats of the 23 in Malwa. Kejriwal was also aided by Delhi deputy chief minister Manish Sisodia and Delhi health minister Satyendar Jain.

Between the three of them, the trio held nearly 100 meetings, focusing on the business community. On the ground in Punjab, ‘Ek Mauka Kejriwal Nu’ was in the air, and after the announcement of the two-time MP from Sangrur as the CM face, the support only multiplied with ‘Ek Mauka Mann Nu’.

THE SUPPORT

While the AAP enjoyed the latent support of the people of Punjab since 2014, when it won four seats in its debut Lok Sabha elections, it could not consolidate and grow on that base. In 2022, Mann infused great energy into the campaign. As AAP’s Punjab and co in-charge Raghav Chadha said, “It is the victory of the jodi of Bhagwant Mann and Arvind Kejriwal”. Subsequent to the naming of the AAP’s chief ministerial candidate, the campaign, popularity, acknowledgement, acceptability and, perhaps, even AAP’s vote share increased.

“To break into the space occupied by traditional parties, to break the status quo is a magnificent achievement,” said senior journalist Neerja Choudhury on the AAP’s Punjab win.

“It is a big victory,” said Sanjay Kumar of the CSDS. “All other regional parties have their limitations. TMC is maturing and making an effort to contest the elections seriously in Tripura, which will go to the polls in a year or so. It is not the first time that a party is trying to expand its base beyond its own state, parties have made that effort in the past too, but failed. The BSP has contested elections in so many states, but they have not succeeded. The SP has also contested elections in Maharashtra, Bihar and many other states, but they have not succeeded. The Shiv Sena has contested elections in so many other states, but has not succeeded.”

Kumar underlined that although the AAP’s success in Punjab may give other parties hope that they can also make it, their situation is different as the AAP was already present in Punjab in the last election. The AAP victory in Punjab, said Kumar, is a sign of change.

Choudhury noted that the perception about the AAP, that it is a newbie that has made it outside of little Delhi in a mid-sized state, will change across the country. “The Punjab win will ensure that Kejriwal will be seen differently, that AAP is a party that believes in delivery and can deliver and this could attract younger, first-time voters who are tired of the kind of politics based on emotion, community and caste. Many states in India will have such people willing to join the AAP. He may take in people from other political parties, but up to a point. He is looking at the creation of a new political energy,” she said.

Hitting the nail on the head, Choudhury said Kejriwal’s politics relies heavily on providing “solutions” to common man’s day-to-day struggles of living, from paying electricity bills to hospital and school expenses, apart from honest governance.

THE BIG PICTURE

This burst of the AAP onto the national stage is indeed a rare moment in politics. However, the big picture may not change immediately. At least that is what Sanjay Kumar thinks. “The big picture will change only after five-seven years, if the AAP keeps strengthening its political position. At the moment, it will only be a signal that AAP is emerging as a national alternative,” he said.

The Assembly elections in five states in 2022 are being seen by seasoned political watchers as the semi-final to 2024. “In 2024, I don’t think the big picture will in any way be different compared to what it looks like at the moment. The Congress would still remain the main challenger to the BJP at the national level, other parties may form a non-BJP coalition with or without the Congress. In the long run, yes, they are positioning themselves, they will be seen in the eyes of the people as the national alternative, but that is not going to happen very quickly.”

Choudhury believes that Kejriwal is too savvy a player, he is not going to be in a hurry and with just Delhi and Punjab, he cannot be a leader in any possible anti-BJP coalition, even though other political leaders are going to view him with respect. “He is a newcomer, people will not accept him, and he knows that. He will build his party, his purpose will be to expand the base of the party,” Choudhury said, adding that AAP and TMC are the parties on the rise and between now and 2024, both will, unlike KCR, try and increase their footprint.

While on the campaign trail, when asked which party, the BJP or the Congress, will the AAP damage more, Kejriwal looked at Delhi to explain, “Both will be. Now, just look at Delhi. How would you analyse what happened in Delhi? In Delhi, both the parties are finished. The Congress gets zero seats, while the BJP gets two to four seats each time. Both the parties are finished. The people are seeing that both parties indulge in corruption and nothing else.”

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Asserting that the AAP is the fastest growing political party in the history of independent India, the savvy and articulate Raghav Chadha said it is the natural and national replacement for the Congress.

Indeed, seasoned political watchers believe it is the Grand Old Party of India.

“The Indian National Congress founded in 1885 pre-Independent India would pay the heaviest price with the rise of India’s newest political start-up founded less than 10 years ago in November 2012. In Punjab, although, the AAP has inflicted maximum damage on the Shiromani Akali Dal. Both the AAP and the TMC are in the race to fill the vacuum that is being created by the Congress as a national alternative to the BJP,” they say.

Kumar said the AAP has an edge, while Choudhury believed that Kejriwal’s rise will be at the cost of the Congress, the AAP will weaken the Congress. “Kejriwal is positioning himself slightly different from the Congress, he is not antagonising Hindus at all, in fact, coming across as a party that is mindful of Hindu sentiments and sensibilities,” Choudhury said, adding, “The Congress, in the manner it has articulated secularism, has fallen into the trap of being perceived as pro-minority and the BJP has done its best to push it into that corner.”

While the results for the AAP in Punjab have been extraordinary, the party did not fare significantly in Goa, Uttarakhand or Uttar Pradesh. Very soon, it will be back to the drawing board again. Kejriwal, known among his peers for sheer focus, determination, political acumen and ability to withstand serious setbacks, is already looking ahead as the AAP dares to enter the lion den’s in Gujarat, the bastion of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Soon, you will see him there.

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